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Post-open Review… Afraid of the dark. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Afraid of the dark.

Overnight range only now being retested.

The pre-open probe to fresh highs above 1973.00 extended higher to test this morning’s 1981.00 bias-up signal. Without gapping up above it the signal wasn’t going to trigger, not since yesterday afternoon’s buyers had not gained traction. And bars probing above it still overlapped it, so it was never actually exceeded.

Holding a test of the 1981.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 1972.00 bias-down signal. Little time was wasted extending down to attack it, but it wasn’t met until too late to invoke the grace period for possibly triggering it.

Still testing the bias-down signal at 10:30 had a slightly different outcome. Slightly. Legs probing under it to 1969.50 were still overlapping the 1972.00 bias-down signal. It was deep enough to consider the no-bias signal invalidated, but not enough to ignore the 1-minute RSI diverging positively.

That positive divergence at support launched a bounce attacking 1976.00. Back under 1973.50 might launch another dip — remember, this session should be about backing-and-filling the rally, so the likeliest resolutions are those that bring the defensive teams back on the field.