Post-open Review… Anchor vs. Air pocket.

Isolation open has yet to perform.

The open has yet to probe negative territory under yesterday’s 2245.25 close. It could have been probed down to yesterday’s 2243.50 low, and still formed an isolation setup. But until the setup is productive — actually launching a rally — it is vulnerable to failure.

Once it fails, it has failed. Until it fails, it has not. And that’s where the isolation setup finds itself now. Not failed, but may yet.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility touched 2250.00 without exceeding it, which was the preliminary indication making the 2248.75 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger at 10:15. And bias-up didn’t trigger at 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2242.00 bias-down signal.

That’s under the overnight low. Any lower would be vulnerable to an air pocket that stretches through the entire 2230 handle. The open’s temporary isolation could have formed an anchor to help absorb fresh lows. Rejecting 2242.00‘s test quickly and decisively could form the last bottom of the year.

Not recovering fresh lows, air pocket or not, would next target 2215.00. Probably lower, and probably this year.