Post-open Review… Another over-eager low.

Open’s attack on overnight low reacts up.

The 2698.50 overnight low’s reaction up to 2710.00 held. Retracing only 38.2% of the overnight drop from 2728.00 reflected excessive pessimism. This made extending down more difficult than from a 61.8% correction. But it could be done.

It wasn’t.

2700.50 was quickly touched and recovered by increasingly wider swings, eventually touching 2716.00. Which is within 2-3 ticks of the overnight drop’s 61.8% correction. Levels not recovered include:

• 2711.00 …The bias-down target maintained its break to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2704.00. Which was already touched, so retesting it during the bias environment would likely break lower, too.
• 2704.00 …Holding as resistance through the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 creates a position of weakness. It can’t prevent trying to bounce, but should doom to failure any bounce attempt.

Speaking of which, about that bounce to 2716.00. It’s struggling now, but extending would target 2723.50. Its origin would still be from a position of weakness, dooming it to failure, likely to reverse down or not even recover above 2716.00.

Back under 2710.50 would signal the bounce already failing, targeting 2704.00 and potentially a more substantial break below.