Post-open Review… Back to business?

Pre-open rally briefly probes positive territory.

Sunday night’s gap down and first-hour dip to 2609.50 was finally recovered to probe positive territory up to 2645.00. Before the open. Reacting down 14-16 points into the open had yet to correct. A post-open bounce tested 2639.00 — retracing 61.8% of the pre-open drop.

The bounce is normal. But delaying the correction until post-open often develops into a complete recovery. Today’s delayed 61.8% correction did hold, and did reverse down to attack the overnight low at 2609.75.

Despite stopping optimistically short of touching the overnight low, a bounce retested the bias-down signal up to 2639.50. And THEN resolved down. Fresh lows are now probing under Oct’s 2603.00 low to 2598.25.

The open’s delayed bounce was ineffectual pessimism, which is usually bullish from a contrarian perspective. The post-open low’s first bounce from only attacking the overnight low is ineffectual optimism — which has now resolved appropriately. Either the open’s bounce was an anomaly and a much bigger downleg is underway, or else October’s low is being retested to form a more durable bottom.