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Post-open Review… Back to widely disparate opinions. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Back to widely disparate opinions.

Opening volatility offers a little something for everyone.

Overnight tests of “lower prior highs” at 2749.00 not only held, but also launched a pre-open recovery up to 2786.50. Actually, the last 12 points of that was the knee-jerk reaction to CPI. The open was greeted there, but within a choppy range.

The choppy overnight range and the choppy pre-open range kept it going to produce a choppy post-open range. Dipping to attack 2772.00 and surging into positive territory attacking 2799.00 has now been reversed to attack overnight down to 2751.00.

Late no-bias triggered when the last reversal barely managed to touch the 2778.50 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 10:15. The grace period recovered, yet the reversal has taken control. Without producing a probe above the pre-10:15 high, exiting the bias environment under its 2769.50 bias-down signal would invalidate its signal. So, no-bias and its offsetting test of the bias-up signal seem to be off the table.

At least a test of the 2749.00 “lower prior highs” is likely. That would also be a retest of the overnight lows, but the overnight/intraday difference doesn’t make them any likelier to break lower. And the same setup applies — testing 2749.00 during a timing window and recovering it before the exit could establish a near-term bottom. Its break could otherwise trend down sharply.