Post-open Review… Bias-down bounce.

Pre-open surge reverses back to lows, momentarily.

Overnight probing under yesterday afternoon’s narrow range didn’t begin until Europe’s opens. A last-minute 3-point surge up to greeted the US open, blipping up to 2077.00. Compartmentalizing the overnight dip could have marginalized sellers, enabling a retest of yesterday’s 2081.75 high.

The high’s retest this morning was already unlikely since yesterday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction. Only gapping up would have negated that, so triggering bias-down back under 2073.25 is not surprising.

Of course, this is expiration. Surprises lurk.

That pre-open 3-point surge to 2077.00 was one surprise. Another is its nearly complete retracement after an interim drop back to the 2071.25 overnight low. And this recovery comes in a bias-down environment, which narrowly avoided invalidation at 10:30.

Back under 2074.25 would signal that the recovery had failed. Again. The 2067.50 bias-down target’s test would remain in-play. It’s too late for fresh highs to invalidate the bias-down, but we shouldn’t be surprised if expiration leverages fresh highs into a surprising surge, anyway.