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Post-open Review… Biting off just enough to chew. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Biting off just enough to chew.

Overnight rally accelerates into the open. Then stops.

es_092216_amThis morning’s 2165.50 bias-up target had been tested and retested before the open. It was probed up to 2167.50 at the open. The session’s first 7 minutes surged to within 3 ticks of the 2172.50 renewed bias-up target.

Of course, bias-up had yet to trigger, let alone be renewed. After forming a pattern that was not distributive, and unlikely to be a top, a reaction down ultimately reached its limit at 2167.50. Its reaction recovered to actually touch 2172.50.

The renewed bias-up target was met. Only 1 -minute RSI was overbought. Price was responsive, and the pullback limit was soon violated. Bow a sell signal under 2169.50 has triggered. Noise alone could gravitate back down to its 2165.50 bias-up target. Selling pressure could attack the 2160.00 bias-up signal.

Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above its 2170.00-2172.50 renewed bias-up target would not be a signal of its own. But it happens to coincide with two-week old “higher prior lows” that shouldn’t be exceeded unless the rally were extending substantially higher.

Otherwise, reversing back under the 2167.00 open would suggest a high is forming. The balance of the session would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.