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Post-open review… Borrowing from post-open Peter. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review… Borrowing from post-open Peter.

Pre-open rally extends enough to attract sellers.

Another reminder that there can be too much of a good thing. Extending the rally required maintaining a gap up this morning, since yesterday afternoon”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their efforts. Surging after 8:30”s econ report had extended to fresh highs at 2109.25 just before the open. And that attracted more sellers than reinforcements.

Reacting several points down immediately at the open crossed back under 2108.00. Having touched 2108.00 post-open, not recovering it at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.

That extended to within 3 ticks of the 2098.00 bias-down signal. But its test has been put into play, because a half-hour of choppy narrow ranging triggered no-bias, and the bias-up signal had held its test.

Or, has it?

The 2098.00 objective could be invalidated by recovering the 2105.50 bias-up signal at 10:30. In fact, a bounce tested it just minutes before, but still failed to recover it. No-bias could still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the 2108.50 post-open high so long as a fresh post-open low hasn”t yet printed.

I”ve already pointed out in the chaRTroom how the first half-hour”s pattern has already foreshadowed this morning would likely range choppily, or narrowly, or both. Not optimal for trading. And now 2105.50 is being retested, which at least offers an optimal short-entry. So long as it holds as resistance, 2098.00 is in-play.