Post-open Review… Bullish, or Bull$#!t?

Upside bias contradicts context.

It’s all about context. Context tells us whether to rely on trending or to suspect it. And if relying on it, what is that trending’s objective. Objectives are a function of pattern structure and calculation. So, it’s all about structure and calculation. And context. Structure, calculation and context. Timing of certain behaviors can provide the context for knowing which structural and calculable objectives are likely. So it’s all about timing, behaviors, structure, calculation and context.

And even then…

Last night’s relentless one-way trending down wasn’t rejected through the open. Neither was it confirmed by a post-open low to prevent a bounce. But not rejecting the overnight decline allows for a bounce, while making that bounce likely to fail.

A bounce did develop, after holding the bias-down signal’s 2549.00 calculation as support through the 10:15 bias timing window. That puts into play an offsetting test of the 2557.00 bias-up signal’s calculation. Structurally, holding support’s test through the open would be rewarded by probing yesterday’s 2553.50 high.

This is all within the context of being in a distributive area. Aggressive probes higher in this range are repeatedly knocked back down. Hard, either post-open, intraday, or overnight into a gap down.

Even then…

The bias signal’s near-term upside gets every benefit of the doubt. In fact, it has already produced fresh post-open highs at 2552.25. Less than 5 points higher would fulfill the bias objective. That’s not a little. And this morning’s recovery attempt isn’t coming from a position of strength, not having quickly rejected the overnight direction. But the upside will get every benefit of the doubt so long as 2549.00 holds as support.