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Post-open review… Buyers blocked, sellers locked. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review… Buyers blocked, sellers locked.

Session-long rally almost tested, so almost rejected.

Gapping up to and through yesterday afternoon”s 1947.00 high would have formed a session-long rally setup. The open touched it, barely, so it was rejected, barely. A benefit of the doubt goes to the consequence of failing to trigger what was tried — but only so much as it was barely tried.

Meanwhile, two other contexts are operational. The most pressing is this morning”s bias-up environment. Renewed bias-up, actually, for having exceeded the 1920.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But even doubly or triply renewed bias up targets have been met already, so there is no requirement to trend back up. The only requirement is that the 1910.00 bias-up signal define the range”s lower-end if tested.

The other context is the traction gained by yesterday afternoon”s sellers. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s high would have neutralized them, and yesterday afternoon”s high contained the gap up, so they should still be rewarded — if not this morning, then this afternoon.

That is, a normal market environment would be likely to probe under yesterday afternoon”s lows this afternoon. This is not a normal environment, but the resolution remains likely until disproved.

One way to disprove it would be exiting the bias environment back above 1941.00. Another would be not to have yet begun trending down by the noon hour”s exit.