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Post-open Review… Buyers lacking sponsorship. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Buyers lacking sponsorship.

REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.

The open was greeted nearly unchanged from yesterday’s 2192.00 futures close. Post-open action was initially hesitant to trend either way, not until being halfway through — exactly halfway through — the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The timing could have been more abrupt to qualify as the characteristic a morning rally required. It certainly couldn’t have been less abrupt.

So, fresh highs got up to 2195.50 stopping short of the 2197.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 2197.00 through 10:30 could still invalidate that it wasn’t recovered in time to trigger. Meanwhile, it should now define the morning’s upper-end if tested.

Neither recovery path was followed at the open, so a morning rally is likely to be only temporary. In fact, a reaction down is now testing 2191.75, whose break would start to signal that the post-open hesitation is exerting its influence. The 2187.50 bias-down signal should define the morning’s lower-end, unless broken through 10:30. Retesting the overnight lows would likely extend deeper to also test 2181.00.