Post-open Review… Cautionary tail risk.

Warning shot across the open’s bow.

If you’ve only caught every other blog post lately, or even every third, or fourth, then you still probably know my criticism of this leg of the rally. That is, ongoing optimism ahead of today’s tax reform vote(s).

Finally, some semblance of defensive posturing arrived at the open. Pre-open action had twice touched yesterday morning’s 2698.00 high. It was never pierced, and the 2697.25 opening print added only a single tick, only a single tick short of touching this morning’s 2697.75 bias-up signal, before collapsing to 2690.00.

Triggering no-bias after touching the bias-up signal would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2688.75 bias-down signal. One wasn’t touched, so the other isn’t required. Regardless, a lower low has now attacked 2688.75 to within 3 ticks, so it wouldn’t become unfinished business, anyway. Also, simply returning down to 2692.50 already makes 2688.00‘s test likely.

So, fresh session lows remain likely so long as 2693.25 isn’t recovered. I’ll also anticipate a test of 2688.00 to recover 2292.50 through whatever timing window it’s tested, or else a more substantial downdraft may be underway already. And back above 2695.50 would signal that a probe of fresh highs is underway targeting 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00.