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Post-open Review… Climbing out of a hole by digging deeper. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Climbing out of a hole by digging deeper.

Post-open dip tries trapping shorts to fuel a rally.

es_091115_amOpening 4 points above the 1932.00 bias-down signal didn’t prevent probing under it a few moments later. And probing under it didn’t prevent recovering back up to the 1937.50 pre-open highs.

But all of that chop, and more, was all still within the ongoing range and not signaling a direction. The only directional intent to glean from that price action was its “ineffectual optimism” — hovering at the pre-open highs for so long without extending higher made fresh lows likelier.

Whether or not fresh lows were part of triggering the 1932.00 bias-down, or just to stretch the rubber band so it could snap back up, remains to be seen. The bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

The pre-open premise was that gapping down within yesterday’s range probably wouldn’t extend down. The post-open premise to selling the open’s strength was that retesting the 1927.50 overnight low was needed to trap shorts.

Now a bounce from that low’s retest is almost 3 points back above the 1932.00 bias-down signal. This being a Friday, triggering no-bias could marginalize sellers well into the afternoon. So, resuming the decline should begin aggressively if it’s credible.