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Post-open Review… Consequences of a failed attempt. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Consequences of a failed attempt.

Failed bullish setup becomes bearish.

es_051216_amA bullish “session-long rally” setup would have formed from gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2070.00-2071.00 bias environment high. The setup didn’t formed, but it didn’t trigger.

Not for lack of trying — the retracement was tested for more than 3 hours before the open. It was even probed to almost 2073.00. But 2070.00 was only attacked to within 1 tick post-open.

That’s worse. The consequences of failing to trigger a formed setup are equivalent to its lost reward. And a session-long rally would have trended up throughout the day. So, with the exception of one timing window –usually the noon hour — today’s session is likely to trend down.

Meanwhile, this morning’s 2067.50 bias-up signal held as resistance through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2058.00 bias-down signal. This now being tested to within 3 ticks, so it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding. But exiting the bias environment any lower would all but require retesting last Friday’s lows.