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Post-open review… Deja voodoo. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open review… Deja voodoo.

Second consecutive overnight rally fails to extend again.

Setups that appear sequentially tend not to resolve similarly. That didn”t prevent last night”s rally from peaking at the ope, just because Monday night”s rally had peaked there. Differences in how they peak can still differentiate their outcomes.

Since yesterday”s peak didn”t reverse down immediately, reversing down today essentially required doing so quickly and aggressively. Reverse-engineering that qualification would create the corollary that NOT trending down quickly would be bullish.

The open”s blip-up to 1917.75 was absorbed quickly as price reversed down aggressively, first to 1895.25, and then to 1885.00.

Bouncing into this mornings Fed speaker was rewarded by his dovish comments, which triggered a knee-jerk reaction up to 1905.00. But his comments only confirmed an already widely-held opinion, and follow-up comments seem less dovish, so that has reacted down to 1890.50.

This is still a bias-up environment — in fact, renewed bias-up, although any renewed bias-up targets have been already– so downside sponsorship is challenging, and difficult to extend. But so long as the bias environment isn”t exited back above 1905.00 and 1909.00, then the afternoon is vulnerable to retracing the balance of the overnight rally… for starters.