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Post-open Review… Once more for the dipper. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Once more for the dipper.

Post-open drop is recovered.

es_072916_amThe opening bar touched the 2160.75 bias-down signal and snapped up to 2164.75. Consolidating there eventually dipped back under the open, and back down to the 2157.50 overnight low.

The dip was recovered to 2161.50, for long enough to invoke the grace period at 10:15. At 10:30, the 2160.75 bias-down signal was being attacked to within 1 tick. But still under it.

A single tick makes it not optimal, but still a late bias-down. Not being optimal, the signal is immediately vulnerable. But only immediately — not for long, and for only one rejection attempt.

In fact, a buy signal quickly triggered back above 2161.50. Back under the 2160.75 bias-down signal at any time would have rejected the recovery attempt, and confirmed the bias-down. But its validity was confirmed by trending up relentlessly to a fresh post-open high above 2165.00.

I’m treating this as a noN-bias environment. And now 2168.00 is being tested. Back under 2164.75 would target at least an attack on the 2160.75 bias-down signal.

Treating this morning as a noN-bias environment allows trending up instead, and even probing new highs. But nothing changes that yesterday afternoon’s rally gained no traction. So, probing new highs this morning would be doomed to failure this afternoon.