Post-open Review… Don’t blink.

ECB reaction retraced entirely. Briefly.

Mario Draghi never disappoints. His press conferences somehow always have a little something for every opinion, regardless of how polarized. But the retest of yesterday’s 2132.25 low that he triggered had not recovered enough to greet the open bullishly. Its retest was likely, and likely to probe lower. And also likely to recover.

The open’s bounce attacked 2137.50 and reversed down to fresh lows at 2131.00. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, producing a bounce back to 2137.50, and eventually higher to where the ECB news had been greeted at 2141.25.

Coming to within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2141.50 bias-up signal neutralized it from becoming “unfinished business above” if left outstanding, after being put into play by earlier holding the test of this morning’s 2133.00 bias-down signal.

Neutralized it, indeed. Its reaction plunged to new lows at 2127.50. Volatility hasn’t suffered much without Mario.

After violating its 2140.25 pullback limit, a pullback was likely to test 2138.00 and only have potential to 2136.50. With no requirement for the latter, I only sold later. The math still works, because a break lower could be a product of the post-open 2131.00-2141.25 bounce. That’s a big measurement for the potential reward to what would still be a relatively low risk parameter.

Regardless of the 2133.00 bias-down signal being probed at 10:30, it was also being overlapped. It was not broken in time to invalidate the no-bias environment, regardless of its objective already above neutralized. Whether or not the plunge intends to extend, 2133.00 should be retested at some point. Its recovery could extend, or resume the decline.