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Post-open Review… Don’t get used to it. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Don’t get used to it.

Bias-up triggers, but not in a supportive context.

es_060716_amPost-open action has trended up. Gradually, if not painstakingly, but up. Bias-up triggered. And it has extended several points already to 2115.50. So, why is this bearish?

Context.

Yesterday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its effort. So, resuming the rally this morning required gapping up above yesterday’s 2112.25 high. But today’s entire first half-hour fluctuated at or under 2112.25 before extending higher.

The late start doesn’t preclude trying to extend the rally this morning. It just makes it vulnerable to reversal. Without recovery.

This doesn’t detract from the very valid bias-up signal that triggered above 2111.50. A fresh post-10:15 high just printed, making the 2117.00 bias-up target likely to be met sooner rather than later. And its test could visit 2119.00, too.

Counter-intuitively, a bullish template would find an excuse to dip. Leaving “unfinished business above” is a safety tether that can guide a later recovery by strong-handed sponsorship. Otherwise, already satisfying upside attractions would more likely start a topping process.