Post-open Review… Excessively restrained optimism?

Bearish setup avoided, but bearish behavior ensues.

Overnight probed above yesterday’s 2893.00 high. So, exiting the open at 9:45 under the earlier 2888.00 overnight low would have formed a bearish setup. Price would have been expected to trend down through this morning, if not also through tomorrow morning.

2888.00 wasn’t broken through 9:45. Not for lack of trying. So, sellers tried to form the setup, and failed. The consequence should be as bullish as it would have been bearish.

It hasn’t been bullish, not at all. And it might not be. Instead, the 2884.50 bias-down signal triggered, albeit late. Already meeting its 2879.00 bias-down target to within 3 ticks means it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.

This is still a bias-down environment. Back above 2884.50 would be bias-down rallying, and require being retraced. Perhaps NDX underperformance needs to be absorbed and stabilized, first. Recovering 2884.50 after the bias window starts lapsing would be free to rally — and could still be as bullish as the earlier setup would have been bearish.