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Post-open Review… Fattening it up for tomorrow’s kill. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Fattening it up for tomorrow’s kill.

Rallying back to the highs, while it can.

Maintaining the open above yesterday’s 2779.00-2780.00 low was the minimum requirement to isolate the overnight probe below it. Back above the week’s earlier 2783.00-2784.00 lows was preferable. Most convincing would have been to recover 2788.00-2788.75, too, which would also invert the bearish WedEX.

Sooo close.

The first 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated choppily around 2788.00-2788.75. That was on the way down from the pre-open touch of 2790.75, and the first half-hour’s ultimate dip to 2786.25. That was easily high enough to fulfill the Isolation setup. The likely minimum reward is to retrace the prior high, which is yesterday’s 2796.00 peaks. I would expect 2798.00 to be met, too, neutralizing its “unfinished business above.”

The Isolation setup usually backs-and-fills during the morning, before resuming its recovery. Surging up to fresh highs at 2794.00 is already being retraced back down to 2787.00. There’s room down to the 2786.00 bias-up signal, which could be probed temporarily down to 2783.00-2784.00.

The 2786.00 bias-up signal should hold as support if tested, because this is a bias-up environment. Still overlapping its 2793.00 bias-up target at 10:15 failed to renew the signal, and often holds through the morning.

As for recovering 2788.00-2788.75 to invert yesterday’s bearish WedEX, not quite. That’s not a decisive rejection. As it happens, the setup wasn’t triggered decisively, either. So, we’ll keep the door open for a bearish afternoon tomorrow, especially so long as today’s close is back under 2788.00-2788.75.