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Post-open Review… Getting a little too comfy down here. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Getting a little too comfy down here.

Big gap down stays down.

es_121115_amThe pre-open slide to 2012.25 reacted up into and out of the open to 2022.00. Just 3 ticks higher would have signaled the overnight decline was being reversed back up.

Instead, a reaction down ultimately extended to fresh lows at 2011.25. That also reacted up to touch 2022.50. Ranging there lasted too long to be considered as rejecting the decline.

One last gasp up to 2025.50 has been reversed down to 2012.25. Its next lower attraction is to retest the low. But the pattern’s purpose is to resume the overnight decline.

This has been a quite an open. The overnight slide is essentially validated by having delayed its rejection. As I discussed pre-open, Fridays have greater vulnerability to trapping an overnight move. But that window had to be exploited early, or else not at all.

Having dropped so much so quickly, already expending a lot of selling pressure, the slope need not steepen into new lows. But it should behave in a relentless way on the way down to 2009.50 and 2003.00.