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Post-open Review… Hard sell. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Hard sell.

Maximum selling greeted the open.

The overnight tests of this morning’s 2446.00 bias-down signal had given way to also test the 2440.75 bias-down target. The opening bar blipped down to 2438.75. And held.

Sellers were already suspicious. The late extension wasn’t any more reliable. Its likely resolution was to test 2446.00 as resistance. Which it did.

Reacting back down to 2441.00 helped to maintain the bias-down signal at 10:15. Another bounce also reacted down before 10:30 to avoid invalidating the 10:15 signal. This is a bias-down environment. Its target has been met, but its signal should define the window’s upper-end.

None of which is preventing yet another test of 2446.00 as resistance. This strength is almost a half-hour premature for reliably breaking higher. A recovery would be more credible upon coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing.

Of course, premature buying runs the risk of being weak-handed sponsorship. Not exiting the bias environment in rally mode would open the door wider to fresh lows at 2438.00. Otherwise, restrained optimism that hovers at or around 2446.00 could still fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2451.25 close today.