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Post-open Review… Holding up, but holding out. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Holding up, but holding out.

Post-open volatility holds unchanged, like the overnight action.

The overnight plunge had been retraced entirely to its ~2356.00 origin well before the open. The Employment Situation report’s reaction had a similar resolution.es_040717_am It was greeted at 2352.50, blipped-down to 2345.50, and then greeted the open back at 2352.50.

As if to reward the dual recoveries’ sponsorship, the open quickly surged up to the 2357.50 bias-up signal. But the reward was actually a trap. Its resistance held as was expected. And its reaction slid sharply to 2347.00.

Ultimately, both bias signals held their tests. No-bias triggered, but no offsetting test of the other bias signal is in-play, because both have been tested. The balance of the bias environment has become very unreliable, especially being equidistant between its signals.

Meanwhile, holding a test of the bias-down signal does go a long way to neutralizing sellers. Only to ensure recovering a morning break, and not far enough to ensure the same this afternoon. Vulnerability to a new downleg targeting 2311.00 can be overcome only by recovering 2357.50 through a relevant window.