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Post-open Review… Holding pattern. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Holding pattern.

Gap up fails to hold all relevant resistance.

Opening up to 2768.25 was quickly reversed back down through throughout the opening 15 minutes to to 2762.50. Yesterday afternoon’s 2761.50 high was still recovered at that moment, at 9:45. It was being probed by another point a moment later. Regardless, its test was no longer relevant.

Yesterday’s late-morning high at 2763.50 had become more relevant, because the open tested it. Buyers could have conserved their energy instead of expending it above 2763.50 — 5 points above it — but that’s what weak-handed sponsorship does. Apparently, that’s who comprised the reinforcements attracted at that stage, as 2763.50 failed to hold through 10:15.

The session-long rally setup is moot. It wasn’t rejected decisively, so the setup’s resolution won’t necessarily be as bearish as it would have been bullish. Also, bias-up triggered cleanly, although its 2765.50 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. And an attempt to break under the 2759.00 bias-up signal at 10:30 held instead of being invalidated.

So, the rally might resume. Friday morning bias often persists through the noon hour. But that’s as much a held bias-up target as it is a triggered bias-up signal. And breaking back under 2759.00 when the bias environment lapses could resume yesterday’s decline.