Post-open Review… Isolation fails.

Recovering to a lat open fails to attract reinforcements.

The overnight drop to 2553.50 was retraced entirely to greet the open at yesterday’s 2576.00 cash session close. Isolating the probe under yesterday’s 2571.50 low would be bullish. There was ample positioning and proximity to trigger a fully-formed bullish isolation setup.

Of course, NOT triggering an an otherwise fully-formed setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. And the isolation setup would have been pretty bullish.

Hovering at unchanged at least didn’t reject the recovery. It just never extended higher. Buyers must be sought at lower levels , which was risky because of an air pocket under yesterday’s 2571.50 lows. Ultimately a collapse retraced the overnight recovery entirely down to a fresh low at 2562.25. The 2564.50 bias-down target was still being touched at 10:15 (within 1 tick within 1 minute) to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.

Now bouncing to attack 2669.00 is trying to isolate another test of 2563.75. Exiting the bias environment recovering its 2570.50 bias-down signal would suggest another upleg is underway. Back under 2565.75 would instead resume this morning’s decline, and set a much different, bearish tone leading into Friday’s payrolls.