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Post-open Review… It’s got legs. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… It’s got legs.

Gap down attracts reinforcements. A lot of them.

The overnight drop to 2821.00 had bounced 6 points to test 2827.00. Their range held to greet the open at Monday’s 2825.75 futures close. The open ranged there, probing Monday’s 2822.75 cash session close down to 2821.50. For awhile.

If the gap fill were going to hold a gap down, then it needed to be rejected. Sooner, rather than later. But the delay in returning back into Tuesday’s range only made the gap down likelier to extend. And that offered confidence in a relatively tight sell signal.

The hesitation did resolve down, and sharply. The session’s second 15-minute block formed a Running Correction — already a bearish pattern, but the worst time to expect otherwise. And it developed around 2818.00, which we already knew from Monday’s bounce off of the 2818.00-2820.00 upper-end was unlikely to hold.

The next lower objective in-play at 2808.00 was quickly met, and hesitation there is gradually resolving down now. It’s being probed, with room for noise under it down to 2802.00. Back above 2811.00 (being tested now) would start to signal a bounce targeting 2818.00-2820.00. But probably not a recovery, with the trend still requiring at least a third lower close.