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Post-open Review… And the kitchen sink. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… And the kitchen sink.

Probing above Sunday night’s high.

The opening bar touched yesterday morning’s 2259.00 high and extended quickly through it. Maintaining its recovery through 9:45 made the bias-up signal likely to trigger. Never mind that, as its 2261.25 bias-up target has been exceeded. And exceeding the es_121316_ambias-up target through 10:15 puts into play the next higher target. Never mind that, too, as that was at least 2266.50, which was tested already up to 2267.75.

A symmetrical triangle formed at the high. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its first break, whether or not temporary, was triggered under 2264.00 and has fulfilled its 2260.50 minimum objective. Probing under it has so far still overlapped it, and not broken lower.

Back above 2264.00 would signal fresh highs in-play. Retesting Sunday night’s high made 2270.00 likely to be tested, too. And that would be too shallow to qualify as a “more substantial reversal in the opposite direction.”

But the open’s high doesn’t require a retest. And anxiousness ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is eerily absent, as buyers throw everything AND the kitchen sink into the rally. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2259.00 wouldn’t itself be a sell signal, but it would undermine the upside momentum