Post-open Review… Up to the last drop.

We’re staying with Mar ES for an extra day before rolling coverage forward to Jun, which is my practice when a new extreme for a move is forming. For reference, Jun trades at a 5-point premium to Mar…

The biggest question of the morning is the biggest because it addresses the bigger picture. It is the question of whether the bearish distributive template remains influential. Indeed, failed probes of fresh highs have defined the past 3-4 hours. Surging to 2733.50 before ECB, to 2736.50 before the open and retesting it afterward — each time reacting back down into the range — all qualify as distribution.

The last reaction down became the deepest, fully testing the lower-end of 2725.25-2727.75. Along the way down, the bias-up signal’s test at 10:15 invoked the grace period, which barely avoided triggering at 10:30.

Having held tests of both bias-up parameters, offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is officially in-play. That’s not required, since the signal triggered late, and barely. But now having printed a fresh post-open low after 10:30, down is much more reliable than up. Also, there’s no “unfinished business above.”

So, until bounces stop failing and supports stop breaking, in-line with the bearish distributive template, the likely resolution is down. Resolving dramatically in either direction is still going to be difficult ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report.