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Post-open Review… Late, too late, strength. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Late, too late, strength.

Narrowly ranging open finally breaks higher.

Rallying up to 2821.50 opened only 2 points lower and ranged narrowly, choppily sideways through the first half-hour. Longer, even. The range was persisting at 10:15, away from either bias signal, triggering no-bias.

Then the opening range’s upper-end broke higher to 2825.50. That probed the 2823.25 bias-up signal. But it was too late to trigger, or to invoke the grace period. Exceeding 2823.25 at 10:30 would have invalidated no-bias, but it wasn’t, and it didn’t.

Probing above 2823.25 this morning is no-bias trending that will require being retraced entirely. Exiting the bias environment above its 2831.00 bias-up target would excuse the retrace requirement.

Good luck finding sponsorship. It’s not impossible, but trending higher probably needs a catalyst like a headline. Meanwhile, trending higher will be difficult amid anxiousness ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, and through resistance at yesterday’s high.

Back under 2820.75 would start to signal a deeper pullback under, with plenty of room to expend selling pressure before it starts damaging the bottoming potential.