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Post-open Review… Too little, too soon. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Too little, too soon.

Extended dip stops short of next target.

Gapping down to test yesterday’s 2126.50 low was likely to react up through the morning. Relentlessly expending selling pressure overnight, and opening at structural support, wasn’t likely to produce or attract more sponsorship to its trend. On expiration, that could have gone either way — but not ranged flat.

That opportunity disappeared when pre-open action slid sharply to 2123.50. The next opportunity for reversing up would come from testing the next structural support at 2121.25. But the post-open bounce to 2127.00 was only retraced to retest its origin — calculable support at the 2124.00 bias-down target.

2124.00 held its retest. And held. And held and held. Four attempts to break lower failed. Even the most bearish scenario was beginning to require a bounce to stretch the rubber band first.

That bounce is getting to be a stretch, alright. It tested the 2130.50 bias-down signal by 1 point. It’s still being overlapped, and not rejected. Enough time was spent maintaining the gap down to create an anchor, and to expect the bounce to fail. But not reversing down from here — triggered under 2128.00 — could fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2137.00 close.