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Post-open Review… Mixed-up signals. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Mixed-up signals.

Divergent post-open actions.

Gapping up above prior highs was maintained at least halfway thorough the opening 15 minutes of volatility to establish an anchor. An anchor provides a recovery in case of a corrective dip. We’ll see.

Maintaining the gap up above the prior afternoon’s high — after having trended down into the close — formed a “session-long rally” setup. But it is at risk of inverting down, so that each timing window probes the prior timing window’s low, instead of probing the prior timing window’s high.

That risk of inverting down comes because bias-up didn’t trigger. The 2207.75 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to invoke the grace period. And extending down to 2204.00 didn’t recover in time to trigger late. Its reaction up is testing 2207.75 now, but it’s too late to trigger. Instead, an offsetting test of the 2199.75 bias-down signal is in-play.

An offsetting test of the 2192.75 bias-down target is almost in-play, too. It would be in-play officially had the 2113.25 bias-up target been touched. It was probed by 2 ticks pre-open, and attacked by 1 tick post-open, but not touched when its rejection would matter. Unofficially, be aware of the potential for extending down to 2192.75, anyway — which would likely also visit 2187.50.

Meanwhile, I’m concerned that this morning’s timing window influence is 10 minutes delayed. Perhaps the onslaught of OPEC headlines has concussed the market. Price action 10 minutes following each of the 9:45, 10:15 and 10:30 windows would better explain why the we’re currently under yesterday’s highs. Rallying this morning above 2208.75 would confirm it. The trend is otherwise down.