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Post-open Review… Nope. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Nope.

Backing-and-filling hardly defines this morning’s action.

Not indicating a gap up this morning had left only one path up, and it had to be exploited immediately at the open. But for the first minute blipping-up to attack the 2154.25 bias-down signal, there was no immediate buying pressure.

Not much delayed buying pressure, either.

So, the direction has been down. That’s not surprising, since the open didn’t meet its bullish parameters. But it’s surprising anyway. Very surprising. The downside action was likely to be only backing-and-filling. A few air pockets uncovered, but quickly recovered.

This morning has been more like dropping a rock from the top of a cliff. The 2149.75 bias-down target and the 2143.50 renewed bias-down target were exceeded through 10:15 as the bias timing window was triggering. Now the bias environment is within view of lapsing, and 2133.25 has been touched.

RSIs are oversold at the low, suggesting that a bounce from here would fail, too. There is no requirement to recover, anyway. And there’s no bullish reason to be revisiting recent lows — let alone to be probing under them.

Perhaps most bearish of all is that there is no specific reason for the slide. So, there is no scapegoat to value and to assume has been discounted. That’s the “uncertainty” we always hear how much the market hates.

Meanwhile, the bias-down environment is ending. Its oversold RSIs won’t allow a durable recovery. And the series of lower lows and lower highs is a downtrend, which doesn’t suddenly reverse up substantially. Any bounces remain likely to be only temporary. And not recovering out of the noon hour could instead see the afternoon double this morning’s drop.