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Post-open Review… Not going gently. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Not going gently.

Choppy open still gains downside traction.

es_120116_amThe pre-open bounce up to 2203.00 held its late resistance from yesterday afternoon. Post-open action immediately slid to test the 2197.50 bias-down signal, then bounced again. Another drop came to within 1 tick of the 2194.25 overnight low, then bounced again. One more bounce managed to invoke the grace period, which resolved down.

Ultimately, this is a bias-down environment. Testing the 2192.00 bias-down target is likely also to visit 2187.50.

At this stage, nothing yet requires anything deeper, let alone durable. Indeed, the bias-down signal missed opportunities to be optimal — triggering late, then not already breaking to fresh lows through the 10:30 grace period. Even now, RSIs are avoiding oversold territory despite finally retesting the overnight low..

Trending down is being fought by limiting dips to only short spurts, which tends to resolve in a sudden, steep and substantial push down. That leg may be starting now as 2192.00 is being attacked to within 2 ticks.