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Post-open Review… Not too little, but too late. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Not too little, but too late.

Opening surge reaches resistance.

If this morning were going to rally, then it was going to do it early — if not immediately. Which it did. Downtrending resistance that defined the overnight highs was broken above 2717.75 just minutes before the open. The second minute’s blip-down to 2716.25 was reversed up sharply and relentlessly to 2729.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And that was extended to attack the 2732.00 bias-up target to within 2-3 ticks.

The 2724.50 bias-up signal was touched at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was recovered through 10:30 to trigger late bias-up. Its 2732.00 bias-up target is now being probed up to 2734.75.

Pretty powerful stuff. Especially for weak-handed buyers.

Strong-handed buyers would have gapped up above yesterday afternoon’s 2732.25 bias environment high. That was the minimum requirement to invalidate yesterday afternoon’s sellers for having gained traction. So, this morning’s rally is likely temporary. Friday and Tuesday both rallied early and reversed later. Following that pattern today could probe yesterday’s low under 2706.00. And lower.

Exiting this morning’s bias environment above its 2732.00 bias-up target (or above 2737.50 if tested meanwhile) could invalidate the bearish scenario. At least, it would get a benefit of the doubt for extending the bounce.