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Post-open Review… Now, THAT’S inflation. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Now, THAT’S inflation.

CPI reaction is retraced entirely.

The overnight fluctuation around this morning’s 2673.75 bias-up target had just begun improving into the pre-open CPI report. Oops.

Remember the oddities I mentioned this morning of yesterday’s treading range that barely measured double-digits, and the ranging through midnight that was single-digit in width? The knee-jerk reaction’s 49-point plunge probed 7 points under yesterday morning’s low.

The open was greeted at this morning’s 2645.50 bias-down target. Its 2655.50 bias-down signal was tested halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And the 2666.50 bias-up signal was being tested at 10:15. It triggered late, after having probed its 2673.75 bias-up target by 1 point. And now higher highs at 2676.75 are 3 ticks short of the overnight, pre-CPI high, pre-post-CPI knee-jerk reaction high.

Nothing requires extending or retracing. But a market that can plunge 49 points and rally 50 points within two hours is a market that can rally and plunge a lot. And the quick post-open surge to resistance I discussed before the open — albeit discussed in the context of probing fresh highs — is still a risk. Back under the bias-up signal when the bias-up environment is lapsing would be vulnerable to extending down sharply. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2673.75 would next target 2684.00.