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Post-open Review… Old stomping grounds. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Old stomping grounds.

Surging back to prior failure levels.

This morning’s Employment Situation report was greeted by an 11-point pullback to 2476.00, that was firming back up to 2480.50. The knee-jerk reaction attacked 2470.00 a couple of times, while consolidating more and more narrowly around 2480.50.

Opening higher soon extended back up through overnight highs. Touching yesterday’s 2489.00 intraday high maintained its recovery through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to avoid undermining the rally’s sponsorship. Soon 2503.00 was being tested.

Another reaction down had potential to form a temporary correction. Temporary, because maintaining the open above yesterday afternoon’s bias environment high has formed a “session-long rally” setup. The reaction’s correction lasted almost an entire minute as Fed Chair Powell said something hawkish that triggered a 6-point spike down to 2487.50.

Powell kept speaking, and subsequent headlines were more rally-friendly, if not actually dovish. A 34-point surge is just tested the past week’s highs around 2521.00.

Reacting down to 2408.50 could develop into a deeper pullback — fulfilling not the target but the purpose of the earlier pullback that Powell’s first headline had hijacked — now targeting 2492.50-2495.50. Back above 2515.00 first could resume the rally, targeting 2525.25.