Post-open review… Pick a mixed signal, any mixed signal.
Volatile open leads to multiple signals. They”re all correct.
The open”s dip pierced yesterday”s 2092.00 low by 3 ticks. That does NOT qualify as probing fresh lows. Probing fresh lows this morning was indicated by yesterday”s session-long decline, and by Wednesday morning”s break.
The open touch of this morning”s 2091.25 bias-down signal does not put into play an offsetting test of the 2096.75 bias-up signal. That”s because the 2098.00 open had already tested the bias-up signal.
Bouncing from the open”s low probed a fresh high at 2100.75. It reacted down just enough to touch the 2096.75 bias-up signal, just in time to invoke the grace period. And despite extending down to 2094.50, bouncing through 10:30 recovered 2096.75 to trigger “late bias-up.” On that point…
The late bias-up doesn”t prevent this morning from probing under yesterday”s lows.
We see several “late” bias signals each week, which invoked the grace period at 10:15. We don”t see many instances of testing both bias signals by 10::15… each month. Testing three bias signals by 10:15 — one”s test interrupting two tests of the other — is too rare to draw any reliable inference from its limited history.
Some signals are more reliable than others, but none more so than mixed signals. Contrarians anticipate the market doing its best to disappoint the most people at any given time. This is true, when many people are coagulating around a similar opinion.
But there is no contrarian position to mixed signals. So, rather than disappoint, the market tends to satisfy as many of the signals as possible. This is that instance.
So, regardless of the late bias-up, we”re still expecting to probe yesterday”s lows this morning. And we”re expecting the late bias-up”s extra room to help absorb that selling pressure to avoid melting down into the weekend. Not probing fresh lows this morning would be vulnerable to melting down this morning.