Post-open Review… The problem with minimalism.

About to retest yesterday’s shallow dip?

Resistance at 2388.00 held yesterday’s highs, overnight highs and the open’s highs. My warning in the Market Tour is in-play, that holding its test would be likely to reverse back under yesterday’s low.

But not necessarily abruptly. Barely testing 2388.00 didn’t stretch the rubber band, so its reaction may lack the velocity of snapping back down. And not testing the 2389.75 bias-up signal has prevented putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.

The two scenarios for this template are based on two responses to the Friday Factors of the weekend’s impending illiquidity. Both scenarios include a capitulative leg, at some point intraday. One of the scenarios is also influenced by the recent optimism — most recently yesterday’s shallow morning dip — and delays the deeper drop until the afternoon.

So, a bounce may be developing now. The first hour has already dropped 8 points to 2380.50, close to the 2379.00 bias-down signal. Being so far from the bias environment lapsing, correcting the post-open slide becomes likely.

Keep in mind that regardless of the bearish template, there no actual attraction below in-play. Trending down isn’t reliable. And where there’s no reliability to trend, there is vulnerability to reverse.