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Post-open Review… Running out of room to run. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Running out of room to run.

Overnight rally extends, then collapses.

The 2627.50-2642.00 overnight range had broken higher to 2647.00 long enough before the open that its failure would likely be more than just noise. Extending higher post open attacked 2654.00, but barely held above the 2646.75 bias-up target at 10:15.

That officially renewed the bias-up signal. But the same downleg underway at 10:15 continued extending down, with room back down to the 2638.50 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment. It was tested at 10:30, but its reaction up to 2643.00 maintained the downside momentum.

Fresh pullback lows have now retraced 61.8% of the earlier overnight range down to 2632.50. A retracement up to the 2638.50 bias-up signal is required for having probed under it during a bias-up environment — unless the bias environment is exited under its 2625.25 bias-down signal.

Meanwhile, a little more room for noise down to 2629.50 could still be tested, and still be likely to retrace 2638.50. But any lower would essentially target 2625.25, and at least delay the 2638.50 retest.