Post-open Review… Second thoughts.

Overnight rally is retraced entirely.

The “new Globex trend extreme” at 2299.50 should be retested at some point intraday. F\Breaking back under the 2291.75 overnight low through the open would have made the high’s retest unlikely today. The inverse is not true. So, holding the overnight low’s test through the open does not require retesting 2299.50 today. But it does keep the door open.

Trading around unchanged isn’t preventing the overnight high’s retest. A bigger impediment is that negative territory was probed so shallowly. More precisely, that it was probed so shallowly without already reacting up. A deeper dip holding the 2289.25 bias-down signal would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2297.50 bias-up signal. Instead, the rubber band wasn’t stretched tightly enough to snap back up forcefully.

Reacting up is nonetheless printing fresh post-open highs up to 2296.50. But that’s still overlapping the 2296.00 open’s peak. And RSIs aren’t improving, or even attacking overbought. While a new downleg this morning is unlikely, suddenly rallying isn’t much more likely.