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Post-open Review… Second wind. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Second wind.

Opening surge extends overnight rally.

es_062816_amSingle-minded relentless overnight trending is always vulnerable to reversing at the open. Indeed, it often does. But rejection should be obvious before getting halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Still hanging on then, or already extending, makes another leg likely.

The pre-open dip greeted the cash session at 2010.00, fewer than 2 points under the high. Hovering there lasted almost half the opening 15 minutes before finally resolving. And having avoided rejection for that long, extending the prevailing trend became likely.

Fresh highs were likely to pierce 2018.00. It was tested and retested, but 2018.25 was touched only by an errant tick. Now a reaction down has is attacking the 2010.00 open.

Can the pullback extend to probe fresh post-open lows through the bias environment exit? That would undermine the post-open attempt to extend the overnight trending. Reversing the entire rally today would still be possible, but not required.

Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in rally mode could entrench the rally through tomorrow morning.