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Post-open Review… They seem good with it. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… They seem good with it.

Perfect storm extends pre-open surge.

The Employment Situation report reaction had essentially spiked up 6 points to 2168.00 resistance. So long as that wasn’t rejected, just standing still would mean the market had discounted a es_080516_amgrowing likelihood for a rate hike.And that comfort level would become uncomfortable, as the market would scramble to buy.

Greeting the open at 2168.00 touched a pullback limit at 2166.50 before quickly recovering to fresh highs. The market is a quick learner. The quick recovery became a substantial recovery, testing the 2171.25 bias-up target and then probing it to test 2175.50.

So, now what? Does the market continue its realization that a rate hike is priced in, and continue rallying into the afternoon? Probably something like that. NEVER underestimate the influence of weekend illiquidity getting exponentially closer with each passing minute. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate before so near the weekend.

Sunday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2177.75 requires an intraday retest. Being in its orbit, probing above all prior intraday highs, its test is likely before any durable reaction down.

Retesting Sunday night’s high before entering the afternoon bias environment would be vulnerable to reversing down into the weekend. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate before so near the weekend. It’s also difficult to stop once generated, if the trend’s objective is already met.