Post-open Review… Sellers, to the last drop.

Sellers gain traction, then give buyers more rope. A lot of it.

The open’s test of 2041.00 resistance was reversed down to fresh lows at 2035.00. Trending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility indicated that bearish scenarios remained intact and that sellers would not be marginalized.

Sellers aren’t marginalized? Really? The 2035.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, and an offsetting test of the 2044.50 bias-up signal was put into play. It was fulfilled soon after a knee-jerk reaction to the 10:30 EIA report retested 2035.75 as support.

Sellers aren’t marginalized? Really? Probing above the 2044.50 in a no-bias environment — now attacking the 2049.50 overnight high — is “no-bias trending.” That requires being retraced entirely before a durable rally could be launched.

Sellers aren’t marginalized. Really. Only exiting this morning’s bias environment above its 2051.00 bias-up target would invalidate the “no-bias trending” and its attraction back down to 2044.50. Otherwise, “no-bias trending” is usually the work of weak hands. Regardless of the bounce’s degree or slope, patient sellers allow it so their satisfied opposition is less influential later.

If this morning’s sellers did gain traction, then this afternoon’s reaction to FOMC Minutes should resume the decline, or accelerate it if resumed already. Extending higher anyway would leave unfinished business below at 2044.50, and potentially lower.