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Post-open Review… Sellers marked it. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Sellers marked it.

Friday’s range avoids recovery.

The overnight bounce from 2257.50 had touched Friday’s 2266.25 low. Which held. It’s also this morning’s bias-down signal. Reacting down greeted the open at 2262.50. The opening 15 minutes trended down deeper, and eventually 2260.00 was tested.

So, the probe under Friday’s low was not isolated to the overnight. A complete retracement of the overnight bounce from 2257.50 became likely.

That didn’t prevent a bounce. A big bounce. The biggest bounce possible, without reversing the trend back up — holding a test of the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Actually, the grace period was invoked, but its exit triggered late bias-down.

The alternative would have been bullish. Very bullish. The most bullish possible. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters.

Instead, the bullish scenario depends on ignoring the bias-down signal. Which is possible, since it triggered late, and since it’s 2260.75 target has been met.

Back under 2264.00 should confirm the 2260.75 bias-down target will be met. Its test is likely also to visit 2257.50. Otherwise, just hovering around 2266.00 until the bias environment begins lapsing could start rallying back into Friday’s range, and through it.