Post-open Review… Shrinkage!

Volatility narrows considerably from overnight.

The fifth and final overnight swing almost matched the 12-1/2 point surge which had originated at Europe’s opens. That’s not to say its 11-point reaction down has reacted much. In fact, its 7-point pre-open bounce to 2051.75 was only now touched — and only touched — more than 30 minutes past the open.

Trending is difficult to launch from a standing stop, that being the 2049.00 equivalent to Friday’s cash session close. Further making any upside and downside difficult this morning is the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints.

If any three of the first five 15-minute checkpoints overlap the same relevant level, the bias environment tends to be directionless. And the first three checkpoints (9:30, 9:45, 10:00) each overlapped 2049.00. The 10:15 bar was within 1 tick.

Recovering the 2054.00 bias-up signal through 10:30 would invalidate the no-bias, and clear a path up. Otherwise, this is basically a “dry cleaners” morning, i.e. time to run errands. No offsetting test of the 2043.00 bias-down signal is required, but drifting back into negative territory would become likely.