Post-open Review… Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Session-long rally setup fails to fully form.

Rallying overnight to 2785.00 was optimism. But it would be ineffectual if not exploited post-open. Gapping up to and/or through yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias environment high still needed to extend higher. It didn’t.

2777.00 is actually the resistance that yesterday’s bias environment high was testing. The open tested the actual 2778.50 high by 3 ticks. And then it collapsed. A dip to 2766.00 was recovered to 2778.00, but that has also collapsed to attack 2759.00.

Failing to complete the session-long rally setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. The earliest confirmation is to probe under the pre-9:45 open’s low after 10:15. That’s done. Like the session-long rally setup would have done, all but one timing window today should probe its prior timing window’s low.

None of which precludes sizeable intraday bounces. Even fresh highs can maintain the setup’s integrity, if rejected back under prior highs before that timing window lapses. Current example: A bounce from 2759.00 is retesting this morning’s 2773.00 bias-up target. Big bounce, which should hold this resistance because its test held already through 10:15.

A momentary probe of fresh session highs is still possible, but back under 2767.75 would start to signal the reaction down has resumed. Remember, the bigger picture’s goal is to close back under 2749.00, preferably under yesterday’s 2745.50 and 2732.00 closes, if not also under yesterday’s 2712.25 low. None of which is likely if probing a fresh high without rejecting it.