Post-open Review… To stand still, is to fall.

Wide swings all centered around unchanged.

Greeting the Employment Situation report at unchanged around 2084.00 eventually surged to test 2088.00. Its reaction down attacked 2080.00 through the open. Another surge attacked 2088.00, reversing down again  to 2079.00. All centered around 2084.00, repeatedly attracted back to and through it.

This market does not want to sit still. But it also seems incapable of rallying, having held two tests of yesterday’s last relative high. Rallying is not to be confused with probing prior highs. For example, holding a test of this morning’s 2082.00 bias-down signal puts into play an offsetting test of the 2088.75 bias-up signal. Probing it could also test 2090.00-2091.00. But that wouldn’t be a rally. and it would remain likely to resolve down.

A couple of observations. First, Post-open lows stopped optimistically short of each other, if not probing lower with only errant ticks. Their bounces all failed, making that “ineffectual optimism.” Not a durable bottom. Second, at least three of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints all overlapped 2084.00 / unchanged. This tends to be difficult to trend away from, although not without aggressive attempts.

Back under 2082.00 at 10:30 would invalidate the no-bias which triggered at 10:15. Fresh lows at 2077.50 remain likely, despite the fresh low already having neutralized the attraction to yesterday’s oversold RSIs. Meeting the target this morning would have still allowed time for countertrend sponsorship to absorb the drop, and for 2084.00 / unchanged to attract price back up for a possible bottom. Instead, the attraction to fresh lows remains outstanding, and testing it this weekend could open the dam to a flood of selling into the weekend.

With apologies to Buckminster Fuller, to stand still is to fall.So it is with bouncing shallowly and permaturely.