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Post-open Review… Stop me if this looks familiar. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Stop me if this looks familiar.

Post-open plunge only erases opening gains.

The overnight range was already flat-to-slightly-higher. The 2587.75 bias-up signal was briefly probed several times. A more obvious effort began within 90 minutes of the open. That was during the window of vulnerability — i.e. How valid can a breakout be if the entire overnight range was poised but never did so.

So, a fresh post-open high to 2597.50 was reversed down sharply, and a lot. Bias-up didn’t trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2566.50 bias-down signal. Already the sharp reversal has extended down to 2573.50. More important is the fresh low printed AFTER 10:15, which helps to confirm its direction.

Meanwhile, the fresh low is coinciding with obligatory support — that is yesterday’s reaction down into the futures close at 2573.50-2575.00. Its reaction is bouncing to test 2585.00.

Back under 2580.25 and 2577.75 would likely resume the decline. And although a bigger bounce is possible, it’s too late to recover the bias-up signal in time to avoid triggering it.