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Post-open Review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.

Two optimists walk into a bar. The first one says, “Hey, where’d everybody go?”

Another gap up? Another reversal back under the open? No learning curve is this slow. Expiration is coming, and the position-jockeying is ongoing.

This morning’s extension of the overnight rally didn’t reject its test of 1938.00. But 1938.00 wasn’t clearly recovered, and was  still being overlapped at 9:45. Its recovery offered a lot of reward — Christmas in January. But its reaction down is testing 1918.00.

20 points of the high is a lot of selling. Even more so — that comes after testing what would have been the renewed bias-up target at 1938.75, back under the 1933.50 bias-up target, and not yet rejecting the 1927.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

It’s rare enough to reject tests of both bias parameters through 10:15. Rejecting them AND their renewed bias-up target is unlikely. In fact, the bias-up signal wasn’t rejected. It was being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

A simple correction still has room down to 1912.00 or 1907.00 before suggesting the decline has resumed. This post-open dip can resume the decline since the open didn’t gain traction. Entering or exiting the noon hour above a prior high would suggest the post-open dip was just a correction, after all.