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Post-open Review… Suddenly, a different tilt. – If, Then… Market Timing

Post-open Review… Suddenly, a different tilt.

Buy the dip, but sell its bounce.

Rallying overnight eventually extended 12-16 points from yesterday’s 2777.75 and 2782.50 closes to test 2794.00. Already reacting down greeted the open at 2789.00. It was still a gap up, but it wasn’t maintained. Instead, the open slid to within 1 tick of yesterdays’ 2782.50 futures close. That was soon probed down to 2780.50.

So, no-bias, right? Actually, a bounce probed the 2787.50 bias-up signal by 1 point in time to invoke the grace period. Actually, the extra time wasn’t exploited, and its reaction fell to 2784.00.

So, no-bias, right? Actually, another bounce probed the 2787.50 bias-up signal by 1 point. It’s still holding, again. So, no-bias.

Which puts into play an offsetting test of the 2772.50 bias-down signal. Which would be in the orbit of yesterday’s 2769.50 low that requires a retest for being accompanied by oversold RSIs. No-bias trending is still possible, especially when bias triggers late. Regardless, not exploiting and extending the gap up does suggest that even the most bullish scenario needs at least some more backing-and-filling below.